Texas shooter error

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The Texas sharpshooter fallacy is an informal fallacy which is committed when differences in data are ignored, but similarities are overemphasized. From this reasoning, a false conclusion is inferred.^[1] This fallacy is the philosophical or rhetorical application of the multiple comparisons problem (in statistics) and apophenia (in cognitive psychology). It is related to the clustering illusion, which is the tendency in human cognition to interpret patterns where none actually exist.

The name comes from a joke about a Texan who fires some gunshots at the side of a barn, then paints a shooting target centered on the tightest cluster of hits and claims to be a sharpshooter.^[2][3][4]

Structure[edit]

The Texas sharpshooter fallacy often arises when a person has a large amount of data at their disposal but only focuses on a small subset of that data. Some factor other than the one attributed may give all the elements in that subset some kind of common property (or pair of common properties, when arguing for correlation). If the person attempts to account for the likelihood of finding some subset in the large data with some common property by a factor other than its actual cause, then that person is likely committing a Texas sharpshooter fallacy.

The fallacy is characterized by a lack of a specific hypothesis prior to the gathering of data, or the formulation of a hypothesis only after data have already been gathered and examined.^[5] Thus, it typically does not apply if one had an ex ante, or prior, expectation of the particular relationship in question before examining the data. For example, one might, prior to examining the information, have in mind a specific physical mechanism implying the particular relationship. One could then use the information to give support or cast doubt on the presence of that mechanism. Alternatively, if additional information can be generated using the same process as the original information, one can use the original information to construct a hypothesis, and then test the hypothesis on the new data. (See hypothesis testing.) What one cannot do is use the same information to construct and test the same hypothesis (see hypotheses suggested by the data)—to do so would be to commit the Texas sharpshooter fallacy.

Examples[edit]

A Swedish study in 1992 tried to determine whether power lines caused some kind of poor health effects.^[6] The researchers surveyed people living within 300 meters of high-voltage power lines over 25 years and looked for statistically significant increases in rates of over 800 ailments. The study found that the incidence of childhood leukemia was four times higher among those who lived closest to the power lines, and it spurred calls to action by the Swedish government.^[7] The problem with the conclusion, however, was that the number of potential ailments, i.e., over 800, was so large that it created a high probability that at least one ailment would exhibit the appearance of a statistically significant difference by chance alone, a situation known as the multiple comparisons problem. Subsequent studies failed to show any association between power lines and childhood leukemia.^[8]

The fallacy is often found in modern-day interpretations of the quatrains of Nostradamus. Nostradamus’s quatrains are often liberally translated from the original (archaic) French, stripped of their historical context, and then applied to support the conclusion that Nostradamus predicted a given modern-day event after the event actually occurred.^[9]

See also[edit]

[edit]

• Correlative-based fallacies – Informal fallacies based on correlative conjunctions
• Cum hoc ergo propter hoc – Refutation of a logical fallacy
• Post hoc ergo propter hoc – Fallacy of assumption of causality based on sequence of events

References[edit]

External links[edit]

• Fallacy files entry

What Is the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy

The Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy is when outcomes are analyzed out of context, giving the illusion of causation rather than attributing the outcomes to chance. The Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy fails to take randomness into account when determining cause and effect, instead emphasizing how outcomes are similar rather than how they are different.

Understanding the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy

The Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy also called a clustering illusion, takes its name from the metaphor of a gunman who shoots at a side of a barn, and only later draws targets around a cluster of points that were hit. The gunman didn’t aim for the target specifically (instead, he was aiming for the barn), but outsiders might believe that he meant to hit the target. The fallacy outlines how people can ignore randomness when determining whether results are meaningful, focusing on similarities and ignoring differences. Investors may fall prey to the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy when evaluating portfolio managers. By focusing on trades and strategies that a manager got right, the investor may inadvertently disregard what the manager didn’t do well. For example, the clients of a portfolio manager may have seen positive returns during an economic crisis, which may make the manager seem like someone who predicted the downturn.

Another example of the fallacy is an entrepreneur who creates many failed businesses along with a single successful one. The businessman touts his entrepreneurial capabilities while de-emphasizing the many failed attempts. This can give a false impression that the businessman was more successful than he really was.

Comparing Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy to Other Logical Fallacies

The Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy is only one of many fallacies a wise investor should understand and avoid. The Gambler’s, or Monte Carlo, Fallacy occurs when someone bets on an outcome based on a previous event or a series of events (playing a hot hand, or riding a hot streak). This fallacy derives from the fact that past independent events cannot alter the probability of future events. For example, an investor’s might make a decision to sell shares after a time of lucrative trading, thinking that the probability that the value will begin to decline is likelier after a period of high returns.

Investors also may fall prey to the Broken Window Fallacy, first expressed by French economist Frederic Bastiat. Bastiat described a boy breaking a window, for which his father will have to pay. Witnesses to this event believe the boy’s accident actually benefits their local economy, because the father paying the window repairman will, in turn, empower the repairman to spend, and will stimulate the economy. Bastiat points out the fallacy in such thinking by explaining that the father’s disposable income is reduced by having to pay for the expense and that this is a maintenance cost, which doesn’t stimulate production. In other words: destruction doesn’t pay.

WASHINGTON —  The Air Force failed to flag Devin Kelley as banned from buying the weapons he used to kill 26 people and wound 20 more worshipers at a South Texas church on Sunday, the Air Force acknowledged late Monday.

Kelley’s domestic violence offense was not entered into the National Criminal Information Center database by Air Force officials at Holloman Air Force Base where he had served, Ann Stefanek, an Air Force spokeswoman, said in a statement.

The Air Force was required to provide the information to the database because Kelley was convicted of domestic assault and under federal law would have been ineligible to purchase a gun legally. A review has been ordered into how the error occurred, Stefanek said. 

The Pentagon’s Inspector General also launched an investigation to review the Air Force’s handling of the records, according to spokesman Mark Wright.

Political pressure is already underway. U.S. Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, D-N.Y., issued a statement Monday night calling for U.S. Secretary of Defense James N. Mattis to immediately initiate a full audit of required notifications to the FBI by all military criminal investigative organizations. 

“Hearing that the shooter was a former service member with military convictions for domestic violence was even more troubling. However, learning that this senseless act of violence might have been prevented if only the proper form was filled out by military investigators was absolutely devastating,” Gillibrand wrote to Mattis. 

She said the audit should review every case for at least the past 10 years in which the military was required to notify the FBI of the outcome.

Kelley had been convicted of assault in a military court in 2012 for fracturing the skull of his young stepson, and the FBI should have barred him from buying the weapons, said Don Christensen, the service’s top prosecutor whose office oversaw Kelley’s Air Force prosecution. He also was convicted on another count for beating his wife.

The information related to Kelley’s court-martial and the underlying domestic violence offenses were not transmitted by the military to the FBI’s National Instant Check System used to vet prospective gun purchasers, a law enforcement official said Monday.

The official, who is not authorized to comment publicly, said authorities had been attempting to reconcile Kelley’s gun purchases with federal law, which prohibits those with criminal records involving misdemeanor domestic violence from obtaining or owning firearms.

Under terms of a 1996 amendment to the Gun Control Act, known as Lautenberg Amendment, gun purchases would be denied to those who have used force or even attempted to use force against a family member. 

The conviction should have flagged Kelley as ineligible to buy the weapons, if the FBI had been made aware of it, Christensen said.

«This clearly fell under federal law, without a doubt,» Christensen said Monday. «The Air Force is supposed to report the information to FBI. It was possible that it was never reported. It’s possible that somebody in the Air Force just blew it.»

Avery Gardiner, co-president of the Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence, said late Monday that the breakdown exposes “deadly gaps in our system.”

“We thank the Air Force for being forthright and launching an immediate investigation into both this killer’s record and all other Air Force records,” Gardiner said.

The child was born in 2010, and the beatings began a year later, Christensen said. The boy suffered subdural hematoma, bleeding in his brain, from shaking and skull fractures, Christensen said. Kelley offered a partial confession to the charges and entered a plea agreement that capped his sentence at three years.

Kelley was also convicted at court-martial of beating his wife and was jailed for one year. He also received a bad conduct discharge, not the harsher dishonorable discharge, and was busted to the Air Force’s lowest rank.

The oversight could have occurred because the military court labeled Kelley’s assaults on his wife and stepson in the same category as a bar fight, said Christensen, who is now president of Protect Our Defenders, an advocacy group for victims of sexual assault in the services. «It’s also possible, where we often see, when they do report, the information is not translated from court-martial speak to the civilian world.» 

The military also has been reluctant to hold troops accountable for domestic abuse, Christensen said.

Kelley used a Ruger AR-15 in the church shooting, purchased last year in San Antonio, and two handguns were found in his vehicle, authorities said.

More:2017 is the deadliest year for mass killings in at least a decade

More:A last peaceful Sunday before a congregation is consumed by violence

November 06, 2017
6:01 PM ET

The U.S. Air Force failed to report Texas church shooter Devin Kelley’s misdemeanor domestic violence charge to the FBI allowing him legally purchase firearms.

The U.S. Armed Forces are required to report dishonorable discharges and misdemeanor assault charges to the FBI’s National Instant Criminal Background Check System, that in turn would alert a firearms seller to deny purchase to any such offender.

Kelley was convicted of misdemeanor domestic violence against his then-wife and stepson in 2012, earning him a year in military prison and a bad conduct discharge. He reportedly beat his wife during the incident and badly fractured his stepson’s skull. These charges should have denied him legal access to firearms.

“Initial information indicates that Kelley’s domestic violence offense was not entered into the National Criminal Information Center database by the Holloman Air Force Base Office of Special Investigations,” Air Force Spokesman  Ann Stefanek noted in a Monday evening statement, adding: “The Service will also conduct a comprehensive review of Air Force databases to ensure records in other cases have been reported correctly. The Air Force has also requested that the Department of Defense Inspector General review records and procedures across the Department of Defense.”

Kelley purchased four weapons after his conviction and sentence, two in Colorado and two in Texas. He was denied a concealed carry license in Texas for unclear reasons. The weapon used in the course of the shooting, which killed 26 parishioners, was reportedly legally purchased from a sporting goods store in Texas in April 2016.

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This post has been updated to include a statement from the U.S. Air Force. 

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